Texas could more than double solar power capacity by end of the decade, new data suggests

Jun. 5-Texas is poised to more than double its solar power capacity to nearly 80 gigawatts by the end of the decade, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie and the Solar Energy Industries Association. The forecast comes after Texas in 2023 added more sun-charged generation than any state ever has in a single year, the analysts said. Driven by a spike in utility-scale solar farms, the state added 11.7 gigawatts of capacity.

Texas also started 2024 strong by installing another 2.6 gigawatts of capacity during the first quarter. It takes about 1 gigawatt to power 750,000 Texas homes.

"This quarter proves that new federal investments in clean energy are revitalizing American manufacturing and strengthening our nation's energy economy," said Solar Energy Industries Association President Abigail Ross Hopper. "Whether it's a billion-dollar investment in a nearby solar project or a new manufacturing plant employing hundreds of local workers, the solar and storage industry is uplifting communities in every state across this country."

New data show U.S. solar manufacturing also booming: A record-setting 11 gigawatts of new solar module manufacturing capacity came online, the most in any quarter in American history.

San Antonio's own Mission Solar Energy is one of the veterans in U.S. solar module manufacturing. It celebrated 10 years in the area last month and unveiled a 200,000-square-foot expansion, nearly doubling its footprint. The added factory space gives the panel maker room to increase its annual production capacity to 1 gigawatt.

In total, domestic module manufacturing capacity increased to 26.6 gigawatts in the first quarter of 2024 compared to just 15.6 gigawatts a year ago. Once that capacity ramps up to production, it will be enough to supply about 70% of domestic demand, according to the association.

After setting the 2023 record high, Texas solar installations during the first quarter came in just behind Florida - which snuck ahead by about 60 megawatts, according to the report being released Thursday.

Florida, which came in No. 3 for capacity added in 2023 behind California, also had an increase in utility-scale solar farms. Other solar-friendly states like New Mexico and Ohio are also growing utility-scale projects, albeit at a more modest pace.

"The U.S. solar industry continues to show strength in terms of deployments," said Michelle Davis, lead author of the Wood Mackenzie report. "At the same time, the solar industry faces a number of challenges to its continued growth, including availability of labor, high voltage equipment constraints, and continued trade policy uncertainty."

The residential solar market slowed overall, heavily influenced by policy changes in California.

Wood Mackenzie's latest five-year predictions show growth in U.S. solar capacity will be flat this year and next.

Toward the end of the decade, analysts say, residential solar will grow by 9% and utility scale by 3% on average.

U.K.-based Wood Mackenzie, also known as Woodmac, provides data and analysis tracking the transition toward renewable and cleaner energy. The Solar Energy Industries Association, based in Washington, D.C., is the national trade association for the solar and solar storage industries.